Hurricane Central
By weather.com meteorologists
3 hours ago
At a Glance
- A disturbance in the western Atlantic could organize into a tropical depression or storm.
- That could happen by this weekend in the Bahamas or near the Southeast U.S.
- Its potential impact to the U.S. East or Gulf coasts remains uncertain, assuming it develops at all.
- Possible tracks range from a sharp recurve well into the Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.
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A disturbance in the Atlantic continues to be watched for possible formation into a tropical storm, but there are multiple scenarios in play when it comes to the track of this system as it nears the Bahamas and the southeastern United States by this weekend.
Where is the disturbance now? The tropical wave that might eventually grow into a tropical depression or storm is located near the Leeward Islands, or near the "X" in the graphic below, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It's been battling an abundance of dry air for days but is now showing some signs of increased shower and thunderstorm development. That could be a sign the system is in the beginning stages of some slow organization.
When and where could it develop? The National Hurricane Center says development, if it occurs, won't happen until sometime by this weekend, generally in the shaded area on the map below. Most computer models suggest that development could occur by Friday or this weekend.
(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
Is development a certainty? No, it's not a slam dunk.
It first has to continue fighting off the dry, dust-laden air from the Sahara Desert that it's been entrenched in since last weekend. The recent increase in stormy weather with this system is a sign that it might be starting to fend off the dry air.
Computer models suggest wind shear may be relatively light, so that could also favor development. Furthermore, there's plenty of warm ocean water ahead of this system to fuel its development near the Bahamas.
So, assuming any area of low pressure that forms doesn't track over too much land – for instance, Cuba – the factors that had been keeping the Atlantic Basin quiet recently may be lessening their grip.
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Is this a U.S. threat? The short answer is it's too soon to tell. That's because there are a wide variety of outcomes with this system this weekend into early next week, depending on where and when the system develops, as well as how strong and expansive the Bermuda high is.
The possible scenarios include:
- It develops but curves sharply north, then northeast, keeping it away from the U.S. East Coast.
- It develops and brushes or strikes parts of the East Coast from Florida northward to the Carolinas.
- It develops, but in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
- It doesn't develop at all. Even if that happens, the system could bring a surge of moisture that enhances rainfall in parts of the Southeast U.S.
For now, all interests from in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the U.S. from the eastern Gulf Coast to the East Coast should monitor developments with this system and check back frequently to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for forecast updates in the days ahead.
Is this the seasonal ramp-up? The Atlantic has been accumulating Saharan dust since Hurricane Beryl's demise about three weeks ago.
This perk-up of activity comes amid the beginning of the most active time of the year in the tropics and a wave of more favorable atmospheric conditions known as the favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
This wave travels around the globe once every 40 or so days and gives a boost to the tropics as it passes over. Recently, a Category 4 typhoon and tropical storm formed in the western Pacific after a cyclone drought similar to what has been seen in the Atlantic.
August, September and October are the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is because water temperatures are often at their warmest, wind shear is at its lowest and humidity has increased across the basin.
(WATCH: Expert Discussion – Watching Hurricane Season)
The corridor where this upcoming system will traverse is a common one for storms in August.
